[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 22 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 6 09:31:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 114/65 114/65 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Aug was at the R0 level,
with two C-class flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W47, beta-gamma) has the
highest magnetic complexity, but appears to be in decay. AR3073
(S35W38, beta) is unstable. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level over 06-08
Aug. An eruption and associated C4.9 flare was observed in GOES
imagery from AR3068 from 05/0641UT.No coronagraph imagery was
available between 05/0200UT and 05/1053UT, however analysis on
limited imagery after this time indicates there are no geoeffective
CMEs. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Aug was mildly elevated
due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects, and
ranged from 433 to 382 km/s, and is currently near 390 km/s with
a declining trend. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -7 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mild over 06-08
Aug, increasing towards the end of the period due to an equatorial
coronal hole currently crossing the central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22101101
Darwin 2 12100101
Learmonth 3 22110101
Alice Springs 3 221001--
Gingin 3 22101101
Canberra 2 22101100
Hobart 3 22101201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11001100
Casey 6 33111201
Mawson 19 55201105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2101 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 5 G0
07 Aug 5 G0
08 Aug 16 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with a sustained period of G1 in Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Aug, with possible
disturbed geomagnetic activity towards the end of the period
due to the effects of an equatorial coronal hole currently crossing
the central meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Poor-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal
07 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 06-08 Aug, with further degradations possible towards the
end of the period for high latitudes due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 45 Depressed 15-20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 50 Depressed 15-20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 35% depressed at most
northern Australian sites during local night. Spread-F was observed
in Brisbane and Learmonth and degraded conditions were observed
at Darwin and Townsville. The source of these depressions in
the northern Australian regions is unknown. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values in the southern Australian
region, with depressions of 15-20% in the northern Australian
region at local night possible over 06-08 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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