[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 5 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Aug was at the R0 level.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR3068 (S17W36, beta-gamma) has shown slight decay. All
other regions are stable. A new unnumbered region has appeared
at S35W28 with a beta magnetic classification. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Aug, with a chance
of R1. A northeast CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and
STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 04/1344UT. This CME is considered
farside and not geoeffective. A large solar prominence is visible
on the northeastern limb in H-alpha and GOES imagery, extending
from N10 to N30, and appears to have begun to lift off the solar
disk from 04/1310, but any subsequent eruption will not be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Aug was elevated due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects, and ranged from 406 to 515
km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11102221
Darwin 3 11102111
Learmonth 5 11113221
Alice Springs 3 11102211
Gingin 6 11113321
Canberra 3 11102111
Hobart 3 11102220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00002210
Casey 9 33322221
Mawson 27 34312546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3321 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 5 G0
06 Aug 5 G0
07 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: Go geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 in Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Fair Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 05-07 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 3
August and is current for 3-5 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 04-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 20% depressed at most northern Australian sites. Spread-F
was observed at Brisbane, Learmonth and Perth. Sporadic E was
observed at Perth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% depressed in the northern Australian region over
05-07 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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