[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 22 issued 2348 UT on 29 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Sat Apr 30 09:48:11 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  R1 (minor)

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0730UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1810UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 124/77

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     R1                 R1                 R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 29-Apr was at R1 levels 
with M-class flares from regions 2996 (N26W47) and 2994 (N14W79). 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1 levels during 30-Apr to 
2-May. A northwest CME observed from 29/0736 in LASCO C2 imagery 
and associated with a disappearing solar filament the first of 
those M-class flares might give Earth a glancing blow on 2-Apr. 
The solar wind on 29-Apr peaked around 560 km/s, currently around 
520 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength 
peaked at 8 nT, and the north-south (Bz) IMF range was +5/-6 
nT. The solar wind will probably be disturbed during 30-Apr due 
to continuing coronal hole effects and CMEs launched during 27-29 
Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23233222
      Darwin               8   23233111
      Townsville           9   23233122
      Learmonth           11   23233232
      Alice Springs        9   23233121
      Gingin              12   23233332
      Canberra             9   23233212
      Hobart              11   23233322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    25   24365312
      Casey               15   44333222
      Mawson              39   55533365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   3431 2343     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr    15    G0
01 May    10    G0
02 May    15    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 29-Apr, with G0-G2 conditions 
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia 
during 30-Apr to 2-May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 29-Apr, with minor 
degradations in propagation conditions at high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for 30-Apr to 2-May, with short-wave 
fadeouts possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Apr    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr   100    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 May    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 May    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29 Apr were 
mostly above monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed 
at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% above monthly 
predicted values for 30-Apr to 2-May. Short-wave fadeouts are 
possible for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   296000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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