[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 29 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity R0-R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 28 Apr was at R0 level
with several low-level C-class flares (AR2994, AR2995), the most
prominent of which was a C6.7 flare from AR2996. Region AR2994
has the potential to produce M-class flares, although this has
not yet been observed; it is currently on the far western limb
and will soon rotate to the farside of the Sun within the next
24 hours. There are few other solar regions on the visible disk
and these have not been flaring. Solar activity is expected to
be in the R0-R1 range for the next 24 hours, with R0 conditions
generally expected on UT days 30 Apr to 1 May. Two CMEs have
been observed in the last 24 hours, one of which is a nearside
event, first observed at 28/0309UT in the NW quadrant (N25W25).
The aforementioned C6.7 flare is associated with this CME. Preliminary
model runs indicate that this CME will combine with two earlier
CMEs first observed on 27 Apr, which will impact Earth late on
29 Apr. The solar wind speed range on 28 Apr was 470-548 km/s,
which has trended upwards. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF; Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5/-7 nT. Bz was southward oriented between 28/0545UT
and 28/0700UT, and intermittently southward between 28/1530UT
and 28/2200UT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
be slightly enhanced due to coronal hole effects over the next
two days (29-30 Apr). The solar wind speed is expected to be
further enhanced late on 29 Apr due to the combined impact of
three CMEs (two first observed on 27 Apr and a third first observed
on 28 Apr at 0309UT).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32323232
Darwin 11 33322232
Townsville 11 33323222
Learmonth 13 33323332
Alice Springs 10 32322232
Gingin 11 22323332
Canberra 9 22323222
Hobart 9 22323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 16 22444332
Casey 21 34432533
Mawson 51 64532367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 2211 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 30 G0-G1 with a chance of G2
30 Apr 15 G0 with a chance of G1
01 May 10 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 28 April and
is current for 28-30 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 28 Apr, with G0-G2 conditions
observed in the Antarctic region over the same period. The observed
disturbed conditions in the Antarctic region were due to a slightly
enhanced solar wind speed and a prolonged period of intermittently
southward-oriented IMF Bz. G0-G1 conditions are likely over the
next two days due to both coronal hole effects and the impending
impact of three nearside coronal mass ejections, first observed
on 27 Apr and 28 Apr. There is a chance of G2 conditions on 29
Apr due to CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
30 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 28 Apr. Some minor
degradations in propagation conditions are possible at mid and
high latitudes due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity
over 29 Apr to 1 May, with further degradations possible on 29
Apr due to impending CME impact. Short-wave fadeouts are possible
today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 95 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28 Apr were
mostly above monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be
15-30% above monthly predicted values on 29 Apr to 1 May due
to high levels of solar ionising flux. Mild MUF depressions are
expected on 30 Apr to 1 May due to anticipated disturbed conditions,
but will still be above monthly predicted values. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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