[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 27 09:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 145/99 130/84
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 26-Apr was at R0 level
with a few low-level C-class flares. Majority of C-class flares
were from Regions AR2993, AR2994 and AR2995. There are few other
solar regions on the visible disk and these have not been flaring.
AR2293 and AR2994 appear to have weakened, however, still have
the potential to produce M-class flares. These two regions will
rotate to the farside of the sun within a few days. Solar activity
is expected to be in the R0-R1 range, with a slight chance of
an isolated R2 (moderate) event on 27-28 Apr. Several CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery, however, none
is expected to impact the Earth. The solar wind speed range on
26 Apr was 380-550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
gradually decline towards background levels today (27 Apr). From
late UT day 28 Apr, the solar wind speed is expected to enhance
as a southern coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 11201101
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Gingin 1 10101000
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 22311101
Mawson 1 10101100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1012 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 5 G0
28 Apr 20 Mostly G0 with a chance of G1
29 Apr 15 Mostly G0 with a isolated chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26 Apr. G0 conditions are likely
for 27 Apr. On 28 Apr, geomagnetic conditions may reach G1 (minor)
level due to possible coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 26 Apr. Normal propagation
conditions are expected on 27-29 Apr with short-wave fadeouts
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Apr 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 24
April and is current for 25-27 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values.
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% above monthly predicted values
on 27-29 Apr due to high levels of solar ionising flux. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 91300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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