[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 26 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0402UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 25-Apr was at R1 level
with two low-level M-class flares and a few C-class flares. The
M-class flares were from Region 2995 and 2993, respectively.
The C-class flares were from Regions AR2993 and AR2994. These
two solar Regions are showing potential to produce M-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to be in the R1-R2 (minor-moderate)
range, with a slight chance of an isolated R3 (strong) event
on 26-28 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed range on 25 Apr was
410-510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at mildly
elevated levels on 26-27 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11120101
Darwin 2 21120001
Townsville 3 11120112
Learmonth 1 11110010
Alice Springs 2 11120001
Gingin 2 01120110
Canberra 3 01130101
Hobart 3 01130101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 8 24321111
Mawson 12 21122253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2221 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 6 G0
27 Apr 6 G0
28 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 25 Apr. G0 conditions are likely
for 26-28 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 25 Apr. Normal propagation
conditions are expected on 26-28 Apr with short-wave fadeouts
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Apr 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 24
April and is current for 25-27 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values.
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% above monthly predicted values
on 26-28 Apr due to high level of solar ionising flux. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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