[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 13 09:30:48 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  R0 - None

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     R0			R0		   R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    98/45              98/45             102/50

COMMENT: On UT day 12 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level. There 
are currently no regions of significance on the solar disk, with 
only a single C3.8 flare detected. No new Earth-directed CMEs 
have been observed. Isolated equatorial coronal holes are visible 
near to the central meridian in the northeastern quadrant, which 
are expected to increase the solar wind speed in the coming week. 
On UT day 12 Apr, the solar wind parameters have been variable 
447/522 km/s, with a decreasing trend over the last few days. 
The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 8 
nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) varied between -8/+4 
nT, with a minor southward orientation between 11UT and 16UT. 
Solar wind conditions are expected to be enhanced on 13-14 Apr 
due to CME impacts from filament eruption observed on 11 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: G0 - None

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21023332
      Darwin               8   21123331
      Townsville           9   21123332
      Learmonth           11   21024432
      Alice Springs        7   11023331
      Gingin              13   21024442
      Canberra             8   11023332
      Hobart               9   10024332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    16   10035531
      Casey               14   33323432
      Mawson              18   33123354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   4433 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    30    G0-G1 - Minor
14 Apr    20    G1-G0 - Minor
15 Apr    14    G0 - None

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for 13-14 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 12 Apr. G1 levels were observed 
in Antarctica. G0 tending towards G1 conditions expected on 13-14 
Apr due to halo CME impacts associated with filament eruption 
observed on 11 Apr. Chance of isolated G2 period late on 13 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
14 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF degradations may be observed on 
13-14 Apr due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection 
observed on 11 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
14 Apr    35    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 33 was issued 
on 12 April and is current for 13-15 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 12 Apr were near monthly predicted values to 
slightly enhanced. Mild to moderate MUF degradations may be observed 
at high to mid latitude regions on 13-14 Apr due to anticipated 
arrival of coronal mass ejection observed on 11 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   332000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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