[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 12 09:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://sws.bom.gov.au/
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: R0 - None
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity R0 - None R0 - None R0 - None
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: On UT day 11 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level, with
no major sunspot groups observed on the solar disk. A single C1.6
flare was observed with an associated filament eruption from
AR2987. The filament eruption was observed at ~05UT on 11 Apr,
located at S15E05, with a filament length of ~10 degrees; an
associated halo CME was observed in both LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A
imagery. Event analysis and modelling indicates an Earth-directed
CME, with impact on UT Day 13 Apr at ~16UT. An isolated equatorial
coronal hole is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere, which is
expected to increase the solar wind speed in the coming week.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0 level on 12-14 Apr. On UT
day 11 Apr, the solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due
to weak coronal hole effects, with a min/max of 443/546 km/s.
There is a declining trend in the solar wind speed as the coronal
hole effects abate with solar rotation. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF; Bt) peaked at 9 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind conditions are
expected to be enhanced on 13-14 Apr due to CME impacts from
filament eruption observed on 11 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: G0 - None
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 32231120
Darwin 7 32231111
Townsville 9 33232121
Learmonth 7 32231220
Alice Springs 8 33231120
Gingin 9 32232230
Canberra 7 32231120
Hobart 10 33242120
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 33252120
Casey 20 55342222
Mawson 25 44333255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 29 2753 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 12 G0 - None
13 Apr 30 G0-G1 - Minor
14 Apr 20 G1-G0 - Minor
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11 Apr. G1 levels were observed in Antarctica.
G0 tending towards G1 conditions expected on 13-14 Apr due to
halo CME impacts associated with filament eruption observed on
11 Apr. Chance of isolated G2 period on 13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
14 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF degradations may be observed on
13-14 Apr due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection
observed on 11 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Apr 35 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11 Apr were
near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced. Mild to moderate
MUF degradations may be observed at high to mid latitude regions
on 13-14 Apr due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection
observed on 11 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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