[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 1 10:31:23 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** R1-R2 ** MAG:** G0-G1 ** ION: GREEN
Please see our home page: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/ for ASWAS scale
explanation.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9/-- 1835UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 130/84
COMMENT: On UT day 31 Mar, solar activity was at R2 levels due
to an M9.6 flare from AR 2975(N12W45) at 31/1835 UT, with associated
Type IV and II radio sweeps and a CME first observed in STEREO
imagery after 31/1853 UT. Flare location and magnitude indicate
a possible geoeffective CME but data is insufficient at this
time for further analysis. There are currently four numbered
regions on the visible disk. AR 2975, remains the most active
and the most complex, currently classified a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic class. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
for 01-03 Apr with a chance of an isolated R3 level. Analysis
of the CME observed on 30 Mar and our model results determined
that the CME is likely to hit earth in the second half of UT
day 02 Apr. On UT day 31 Mar, the solar wind conditions reflected
the arrival of the 28 Mar CMEs. A moderate shock was observed
in the solar wind at 31/0140UT, the solar wind speed jumped to
520 Km/s following the shock and reached 625 Km/s at 31/1148UT.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked
at 20 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) dropped to - 12 nT.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over
the next three UT days, 01-03 Apr due CMEs impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0-G1
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 24 54344423
Darwin 22 54334423
Townsville 24 54344423
Learmonth 32 64444523
Alice Springs 22 54334423
Gingin 24 53444423
Canberra 17 43343323
Hobart 22 44453323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 42 44475523
Casey 25 55434332
Mawson 31 54634433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1112 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 25 G0-G1 with a chance of G2 levels.
02 Apr 20 G0-G1
03 Apr 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 30 March and
is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region reached G1 levels due to 28 March CMEs arrival.
G2 levels were observed in Antarctica. G0 to G1 with a chance
of G2 levels are expected on 01-03 Apr due CME effects .
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF communication conditions my be
observed on 01-03 Apr due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued
on 30 March and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31 Mar were mildly to strongly enhanced.
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced on 01-03 Apr due
to increased geomagnetic activity. Possible shortwave fadeouts
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 56600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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