[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 23 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 24 09:31:02 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Moderate

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              92/37              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 23 September. 
Currently there are 5 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
AR2871 has produced two low M-class flares. The first flare, 
which peaked at 23/0442 UT, was accompanied by a type II sweep 
and a CME. Preliminary analysis shows that this CME may give 
a glancing blow at the end of 25 September or on 26 September. 
A CME associated with the second M-class flare, which peaked 
at 23/1528 UT, is visible in STEREO data since 23/1638 UT. Its 
analysis will be completed when more data are available. No other 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
data. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on 24-26 
September. On 23 September the solar wind speed range was 360 
km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-9 nT and the 
north-south IMF (Bz) varied mostly between 7 nT and -5 nT. For 
24 September and most of 25 September, light to moderate solar 
wind speeds are expected. The solar wind parameters may become 
disturbed at the end of 25 September and/or on 26 September due 
to expected CME effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22323211
      Cocos Island         6   12322210
      Darwin               8   22323221
      Townsville           9   22323222
      Learmonth            8   22323211
      Alice Springs        7   12323211
      Gingin               6   22322210
      Canberra             6   12322210
      Hobart               8   22432100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     9   12443000
      Casey                9   24331102
      Mawson               9   34322200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   4243 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active
26 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 23 September, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were mostly quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic 
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 24 September. An increase in geomagnetic 
activity up to unsettled and active levels is possible at the 
end of 25 September and/or on 26 September due to expected glancing 
blows of the two CMEs observed on 23 September. Isolated minor 
storm periods are possible on 26 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 23 September. Mostly normal conditions with possible mild 
to moderate short-wave fadeouts are expected for 24-26 September. 
Mildly degraded conditions are likely on 26 September due to 
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 23 
September and is current for 23-25 Sep. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 23 September were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs in the Australian region on 24-26 September are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    97400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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