[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 23 09:31:00 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 September. Currently 
there are 5 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on 23-25 September 
with a slight chance of an M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph data. On 22 September 
the solar wind speed range was 340 km/s to 405 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) range was 4-9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component 
was mostly negative, varying mostly between 0 nT and -7 nT. A 
mild to moderate increase in the solar wind speed is expected 
on 23 September due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32321101
      Cocos Island         5   22321100
      Darwin               5   31221102
      Townsville           6   32222011
      Learmonth            7   32322101
      Alice Springs        5   32221001
      Gingin               6   32222101
      Canberra             5   22321100
      Hobart               7   22421101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    17   22643100
      Casey                8   33332001
      Mawson              32   54333356

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2000 1323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active
24 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 22 September, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were mostly quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic 
region, quiet to storm levels were observed. On 23 September, 
an increase in the geomagnetic activity up to unsettled and active 
levels is likely due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 22 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-25 
September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Sep    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep    25    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian 
region on 23-25 September are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:   17.3 p/cc  Temp:    22900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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