[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 23 09:31:00 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 September. Currently
there are 5 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on 23-25 September
with a slight chance of an M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph data. On 22 September
the solar wind speed range was 340 km/s to 405 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) range was 4-9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
was mostly negative, varying mostly between 0 nT and -7 nT. A
mild to moderate increase in the solar wind speed is expected
on 23 September due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 32321101
Cocos Island 5 22321100
Darwin 5 31221102
Townsville 6 32222011
Learmonth 7 32322101
Alice Springs 5 32221001
Gingin 6 32222101
Canberra 5 22321100
Hobart 7 22421101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 22643100
Casey 8 33332001
Mawson 32 54333356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2000 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 22 September, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to storm levels were observed. On 23 September,
an increase in the geomagnetic activity up to unsettled and active
levels is likely due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 22 September. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-25
September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region on 23-25 September are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 17.3 p/cc Temp: 22900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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