[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 11 09:31:35 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 September with a 
single low level C-class flare. There are currently six numbered 
regions on the visible disk with three large Beta magnetic class 
regions; 2866, 2868 and 2869 in the SW quadrant. These regions 
remained relatively stable and quiet over the period. Regions 
2863 and 2864 showed some decay and are currently approaching 
the west limb while region 2870 remained a simple Alpha class. 
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on UT days 11-13 
September with a chance of isolated M-class flares due to the 
complexity of ARs 2866, 2868 and 2869 . No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 
24 hours(gap in satellite imagery between 10/1012-1624UT). On 
UT day 10 September, the solar wind speed showed a slight enhancement 
but remained under 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 
nT and the north-south component (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly at background to 
slightly enhanced levels on UT days 11-13 September. Minor enhancements 
in the solar wind parameters may be observed during the second 
half of the UT day 11 September due to the possible arrival of 
the 08 September CME. A small coronal hole in northern hemisphere 
may slightly enhance the solar wind on 13 September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22311122
      Cocos Island         5   12211122
      Darwin               6   22211222
      Townsville           7   22321222
      Learmonth            7   22321222
      Alice Springs        6   12311122
      Gingin               7   32211132
      Canberra             4   12210112
      Hobart               5   12310112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   02100011
      Casey               10   33311133
      Mawson              22   34411255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1111 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
12 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled.
13 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 10 September, the geomagnetic conditions in 
the Australian region were at quiet to unsettled levels. Minor 
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 11-13 
with possible active periods due to a possible weak impact from 
the 08 September CME and influence of weak coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 9 
September and is current for 9-11 Sep. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 10 September were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Periods of mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the 
Cocos Island region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT days 11-13 September are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values with a chance of SWFs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    97100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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