[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 21 issued 2331 UT on 09 Sep 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 10 09:31:38 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 09 September- only
one C-class flare was observed. This flare peaked at 09/0830
UT and was from AR2866. There are currently six numbered regions
on the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on UT days 10 to 12 September with a chance of more C-class
flares and remote chance of isolated M-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery over
the past 24 hours. The CME that was triggered by the C2.3 flare
(08/0010 UT) is expected to cause a glancing blow at earth on
late UT day 11 September. On UT day 09 September, the solar wind
speed varied in the range 340 to 440 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were 1 to 4 nT and
+1/-2 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed is expected to stay
mostly at background levels today (10 September) with a small
possibility of minor enhancements due to a possible connection
with a coronal hole in the south-west region. Further enhancements
in the solar wind parameters may be possible during the second
half of the UT day 11 September due to the possible arrival of
the 08 September CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice Springs 2 01111011
Gingin 2 01011111
Canberra 1 01010011
Hobart 2 01111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01121000
Casey 6 23211211
Mawson 13 32212135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4234 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 7 Quiet
11 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 09 September, the geomagnetic conditions in
the Australian region was at quiet levels. Quiet to unsettled
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Today, UT day
10 September, global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods due to
the coronal hole effects. There is some possibility of geomagnetic
activity rising to active levels on 11 and 12 September due to
a possible weak impact from the 08 September CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10 to 12 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 29 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 9
September and is current for 9-11 Sep. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 09 September were mostly near predicted monthly
values. Periods of mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the
Cocos Island region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT days 10 to 12 September are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values. Shortwave fadeouts are possible
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 88400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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