[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 3 10:31:03 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 October, with
a C-class flare at 02/2240 UT. Low solar activity is expected
for UT days 3-5 October with a small chance of M-class flaring.
The 30 September CME from N23E47 associated with a filament eruption
may cause a glancing blow at Earth on 4 October. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours. On UT day 2 October,
solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced and exhibited a gradual
declining trend. The wind speed range was mostly 410-490 km/s.
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 12 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) component
range was +7/-6 nT and was predominantly southward between 02/0800
UT and 02/1300 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease
gradually to its nominal levels today, UT day 03 October. Mild
enhancements in solar wind speed may occur on UT day 04 October
in response to possible arrival of 30 September CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 00133200
Cocos Island 3 00122200
Darwin 5 10133200
Townsville 7 11143201
Learmonth 5 01133200
Alice Springs 4 00033200
Gingin 5 00133200
Canberra 3 00032200
Hobart 5 00133200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 00164300
Casey 10 23432210
Mawson 7 01133222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2334 4210
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 5 Quiet
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 2 October, geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic region, quiet
to storm levels were observed. The mildly disturbed conditions
were caused by weakly elevated solar wind speed and the IMF Bz
remaining predominately southward. On UT days 3-5 October, mostly
quiet conditions are likely with possible isolated unsettled
to active periods on 4 October due to possible arrival of the
30 September CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 2 October.
Normal conditions are expected for the next three UT days. There
is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 2 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on 3-5 October although some mild
depressions are possible at times on 3-4 October. There is a
small chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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