[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 21 issued 2332 UT on 01 Oct 2021

Sat Oct 2 09:32:08 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 1 October. Very 
low to low solar activity is expected for 2-4 October with a 
small chance of M-class flaring. There was a filament eruption 
from N23E47 around 30/1215 UT; it appears to be accompanied by 
a faint CME. Preliminary analysis show that it may result in 
a glancing blow on 4 October. No other Earth directed CMEs have 
been observed in the available images. On UT day 1 October, solar 
wind parameters were disturbed. The wind speed range was mostly 
470-560 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 13 nT. The north-south 
IMF (Bz) component range was +7/-8 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to decrease gradually to its nominal levels but it is 
expected to remain moderately enhanced in the first half of 2 
October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22344220
      Cocos Island         9   21333310
      Darwin              12   22344220
      Townsville          12   22344221
      Learmonth           16   32345320
      Alice Springs       12   22344220
      Gingin              10   22333320
      Canberra             8   22333210
      Hobart              10   22343210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    27   22565410
      Casey               16   34433322
      Mawson              22   34543432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2001 2242     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 1 October, geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly quiet to active. In the Antarctic region, 
quiet to storm levels were observed. On UT days 2-4 October, 
mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely with possible 
isolated active periods on 2 October due to waning CME effects. 
Some increase in the geomagnetic activity may happen on 4 October 
due to a possible glancing blow from a CME associated with a 
filament eruption observed on 30 September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 1 October. 
Some mild MUF depressions are possible at times on 2-3 October. 
Normal conditions are expected on 4 October. There is a small 
chance of short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Oct    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 1 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild enhancements. 
MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 
2-4 October although some mild depressions are possible at times 
on 2-3 October. There is a small chance of short-wave fadeouts 
(radio blackouts).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:    54800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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