[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 15 10:30:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 79/19
COMMENT: On UT day 14 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk:
AR2894 (S29W44 at 14/22:15 UT) and AR2895 (N24W27 at 14/22:15
UT). Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 November
with a chance of some C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 14
November, the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, varying
between 295 and 345 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range
2 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was mostly
+4/-4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background
levels on UT days 15 November and most parts of 16 November.
Due to the effect of a coronal hole, solar wind parameters may
show enhancements from late on UT day 16 November and stay enhanced
on 17 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11011200
Cocos Island 1 10100100
Darwin 2 11101201
Townsville 2 11011200
Learmonth 2 10011200
Alice Springs 2 11001200
Gingin 2 11011201
Canberra 2 11011200
Hobart 2 11011200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01021100
Casey 9 33331211
Mawson 12 32111235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0101 1010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 5 Quiet
16 Nov 12 Mostly quiet, unsettled and isolated active periods
possible during late hours
17 Nov 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: On UT day 14 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels and in the Antarctic
regions mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. Conditions are expected
to be mostly at quiet levels on 15 November and most parts of
16 November. Some unsettled and isolated active periods may be
observed during late hours on UT day 16 November. Mostly unsettled
to active conditions may be observed on 17 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (15 to 17 November) with the possibility
of minor MUF depressions on UT day 17 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 November
were mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Nearly
similar conditions are expected for UT days 15 to 17 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 36300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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