[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 14 10:30:58 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 81/22 83/24
COMMENT: On UT day 13 November, solar activity was very low,
with one low C-class flare from active region 2894. There are
currently two other numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2893
and AR2895. AR 2893 will soon rotate to the far-side of the sun.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 November with
a chance of more C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph data. On UT day 13 November,
the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, varying between
310 and 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was mostly +/-3
nT. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background
levels on UT days 14-16 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 01100001
Cocos Island 1 01100011
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 3 11111012
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 1 00010011
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 01101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 10 24421111
Mawson 6 32211112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1200 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 7 Quiet
15 Nov 7 Quiet
16 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly at quiet levels.
Conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 14-16
November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 November
were mostly moderately depressed to near monthly predicted levels.
MUFs are expected to continue recovering to the monthly predicted
values over the next three UT days, 14-16 November. Mildly to
moderately depressed MUFs may be observed on 14-15 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 83100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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