[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 03 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 4 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: On UT day 03 November, solar activity was low with a
long duration C5.2 flare at 2117 UT from AR2887 on the west limb.
Currently there are 6 numbered regions on the visible disc. AR2887
(S27W86) will rotate off the visible disc today, AR2891 (N16W21,
Dko/beta) has decayed and been stable, and AR2893 (N21E27, Hsx/alpha)
has been quiet and stable. Solar activity is expected to very
low to low on 04-06 November. There were a number of CME events
on 03 November but none are expected to be geoeffective. The
northsouth filament associated with AR 2891 began lifting around
2144 UT. On UT day 03 November, the solar wind speed ranged between
497 and 568 km/s until the arrival of a CME at 1925 UT. The impact
resulted in a peak speed of 815 km/s. The current speed is around
740 km/s. The IMF was at nominal levels until the CME arrival
after which, the total IMF (Bt) peaked at 24 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range has been +15/-16 nT. On UT day 04 November,
solar wind parameters are expected to be moderately to strongly
disturbed with the likely arrival of another CME impact. On 05
November, solar wind parameters are expected to settle.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 21102045
Cocos Island 10 20001045
Darwin 11 21102045
Townsville 14 21112055
Learmonth 14 21112055
Alice Springs 13 11002055
Gingin 15 21102046
Canberra 16 21202046
Hobart 16 21202046
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 20202135
Casey 34 44322157
Mawson 44 53122248
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 4524 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 37 Unsettled to Major Storm
05 Nov 20 Quiet to Active. Possible isolated minor storm
periods
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet until the arrival of a CME at 1925 UT that
caused active to major storm levels. In the Antarctic region
quiet to severe storm levels were observed. Conditions are expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on 04 November. Activity
is expected to settle on 05 November but isolated minor storming
is still possible in the first half of the day. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 06 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be fair to
poor on UT days 04-05 November. Normal to fair conditions likely
on 06 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 5 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 5 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 4 Nov only. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 03 November were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some mild depressions during nighttime and after 22 UT.
Moderate depressions are likely at times on 04-05 November. An
improvement in propagation conditions is likely on 06 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 444000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list