[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 15 09:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 May. Both AR2822 
(Hax/Alpha) and AR2823 (Axx/Alpha) continue to decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three days, 15-17 
May. A slow CME was associated with a B4.9 flare from AR2823 
at 14/0104 UT. On 14 May, the solar wind speed peaked at 418 
km/s, the IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +5/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters have been slightly 
elevated since about 15 UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near background levels on 15 and 16 May. Coronal hole wind 
streams should elevate the solar wind on 17 May. Additionally, 
there is the chance the slow 13 May CME may also impact on the 
17 May. Today's CME is likely to result in a mild enhancement 
in the solar wind on 18 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01100021
      Cocos Island         1   01100020
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           2   11100111
      Learmonth            2   00100121
      Alice Springs        1   01000021
      Gingin               2   00100031
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               1   00001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   10001001
      Casey                6   23220022
      Mawson              16   22220255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3312 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May     7    Quiet
16 May     7    Quiet
17 May    15    Unsettled to Active. Chance of an isolated Minor 
                Storm period.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 14 May and quiet to minor storm levels at high 
southern latitudes. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on 15-16 May. Quiet to active levels with 
a chance of a minor storm period are expected on 17 May due to 
coronal hole wind stream effects, and possibly, the slow 13 May 
CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 15-17 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
16 May    10    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 13 
May and is current for 13-15 May. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 14 May were near predicted monthly values with some 
mild depressions mostly during local day. Sporadic E was observed 
at Niue 07-11 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to mildly depressed over 15-17 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    27700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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