[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 14 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 May with a
just a few weak B-class flares. There are currently two active
regions on the visible disk of the Sun, AR2822 (Dso-Beta) and
AR2823 (Axx-Alpha) that both continued to decay. Two CMEs were
observed in the Stereo-A images at 12 UT and 19 UT but no Lasco
data was available at these times. The second CME at 19 UT is
currently being analysed to determine if it is geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three UT days
14-16 May. On UT day 13 May, the solar wind speed followed a
decreasing trend from 530 km/s down to 400 km/s, due to fading
CME and coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) decreased from 14
nT down to 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range
was +8/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing
on UT day 14 May and then stay at background levels on UT days
15-16 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21222111
Cocos Island 3 11221010
Darwin 4 11222111
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 6 22222211
Alice Springs 4 11222111
Gingin 4 21111211
Canberra 4 11222101
Hobart 3 21211110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11110111
Casey 8 24222111
Mawson 23 44332055
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 37 1044 7723
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 7 Mostly quiet with some possible unsettled periods
15 May 5 Quiet
16 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 13 May. In the Antarctic region, quiet to active
levels were observed with one minor storm period. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with some possible
unsettled periods on UT day 14 May and then mostly quiet on UT
days 15-16 May. This forecast will change if the 13 May CME at
19 UT is found to be geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 14-16 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 12 May
and is current for 13-14 May. SWS SWF HF Communications Warning
15 was issued on 13 May and is current for 13-15 May. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT day 13 May were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some moderate enhancements during the local
night. There were also some moderate enhancements over the UT
day in the Antarctic region. In the Australian region, mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 14-16
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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