[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 18 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 17 July, with only
B-class flares. Currently there are four numbered regions on
the visible disk: AR 2841, AR 2842, AR 2843 and AR2844. Most
of the flaring were from Region 2842, which is currently located
just past the solar meridian (N28W13). The CME first seen in
coronagraph imagery starting at 17/0448 UT is a farside event
and will not impact the earth. No other CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next three UT days, 18-20 July. On 17
July, the solar wind speed continued on a slow declining trend,
changing from 410 km/s to 380 km/s due to waning effects of the
HSS from a Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to
low latitudes. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be mostly near its background levels for the next
three UT days, 18-20 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101110
Cocos Island 1 01001110
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 3 11111210
Alice Springs 1 01000110
Gingin 2 10100220
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 6 23211220
Mawson 10 42211332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 17 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 18-20 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 18-20 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild MUF
depressions in the Northern Australian region during the local
day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 18-20 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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