[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 17 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 16 July. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2841,
AR 2842, and AR 2843. Region 2843 has produced several B-class
flares and one C1.1 flare. A DSF around 15/18 UT needs further
analysis to confirm a possible CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low on UT days 17-18 July and very
low on 19 July. On 16 July, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing
trend from 480 km/s up to 410 km/s due waning effects of the
HSS from a Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to
low latitudes. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be slightly enhanced at the beginning of UT day 17
July; then the solar wind speed is expected to return to its
background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11000010
Cocos Island 0 01000010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 11000020
Alice Springs 0 10000010
Gingin 2 11000120
Canberra 0 10000010
Hobart 0 10000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 23101121
Mawson 8 32201141
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 2322 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 7 Quiet
18 Jul 7 Quiet
19 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 16 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to active
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 17-19 July; unsettled periods are
possible on 17 July due to fading coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 17-19 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some mild MUF
depressions in the Southern Australian region during the local
day. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 17-19 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 367000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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