[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 13 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 January. There
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 13-15
January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 12 January the solar wind speed
varied in the range 420-480 km/s, gradually approaching its nominal
levels. The total IMF (Bt) range was 3-7 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +5 nT and -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its nominal levels
for 13-15 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Cocos Island 2 21111100
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 5 21231110
Alice Springs 4 22221101
Gingin 5 21231110
Canberra 6 22231112
Hobart 6 22231012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 23342101
Casey 20 36432212
Mawson 18 53323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 1002 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 7 Quiet
15 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 12 January. Mostly quiet to active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
periods on 13-15 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 13-15 January. Mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are possible
for the Southern hemisphere and in the equatorial region on 13
January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 12 January, MUFs in the Northern Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly levels; in the Southern
Australian region mildly to moderately depressed MUFs were observed.
Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly levels on 13-15 January. Mild to moderate depressions
are possible on 13 January as a consequence of the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E occurrences are expected
to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 43100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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