[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 12 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 January. There
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 12-14
January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
satellite images. On UT day 11 January before 0825 UT the solar
wind speed parameters were near their nominal values. A weak
shock was observed in the solar wind at 0825 UT. The shock is
probably associated with one of the CMEs observed on 8 January.
After the shock, the solar wind speed and the total IMF (Bt)
increased and reached 470 km/s and 20 nT, respectively, and the
minimum Bz was -18 nT. Currently the solar wind speed and the
total IMF (Bt) are near 460 km/s and 7 nT, respectively. The
solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced on 12 January due
to the CME and weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 00133433
Cocos Island 7 00133322
Darwin 8 11133322
Townsville 14 10144433
Learmonth 13 01134433
Alice Springs 9 10034322
Gingin 11 00133433
Canberra 8 00133323
Hobart 11 00133433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 19 00025632
Casey 11 22223333
Mawson 23 32134436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: In the SWS magnetometer data for 11 Jan, a weak (11
nT) impulse was observed at 0931 UT. Quiet to active geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 11
January. Quiet to major storm levels were observed in the Antarctic
region. The increase in the geomagnetic activity is due to a
CME arrived at the Earth on 11 January. On 12 January, global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
with possible active periods, then the geomagnetic activity is
expected to decline to mostly quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for 12 January; mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely
for the Southern hemisphere. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected for 13-14 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jan -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mildly to moderately
depressed on UT day 11 January. Sporadic Es were observed at
several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mildly to moderately depressed on 12 January as a consequence
of the recent increase in geomagnetic activity. Mild to moderate
depressions are also likely for 13 January. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 16400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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