[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 6 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 January. There
are no active regions on the visible disc and no Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available images. Solar activity is
expected to be very low on 06 to 08 January. No returning regions
expected. On UT day 05 January, the solar wind speed was mostly
weak and steady, near 300 km/s, up till 0900 UT. From thereon
it increased gradually to 450 km/s and then remained steady at
450 km/s after 1800 UT. The peak total IMF of 18 nT and a north-south
IMF (Bz) range of +/-14 nT was observed for UT day 05 January.
This mild increase in solar wind speed was due to the arrival
of the coronal hole effect and possibly the 02 January CME embedded
with it. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
for the next two days (06 and 07 January), in response to the
coronal hole and CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 21214322
Cocos Island 7 11114311
Darwin 9 21214322
Townsville 11 22214323
Learmonth 10 21124323
Alice Springs 9 21214322
Gingin 9 21214312
Canberra 8 12104322
Hobart 9 22214312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 12005312
Casey 21 34534323
Mawson 15 42223424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 12 Unsettled
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 5-6 Jan. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 05 January.
Quiet to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
This was in response to the arrival of the coronal hole effect
and possibly the 02 January CME embedded with it. The Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 06 January, with a chance of an isolated active period. Conditions
should settle on 07 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on 06 January. HF propagation conditions are expected
to recover from 07 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 05 January. Strong sporadic E was observed
mostly at mid-latitude locations. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed
level on 06 and 07 January, in response to the recent geomagnetic
activity. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to continue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 30400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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