[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 5 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 January. There
are no active regions on the visible disc and no Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available images. The solar wind speed
range was 275 to 347 km/s with a peak total IMF of 8 nT and a
north-south IMF (Bz) range of +/-5 nT. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on 05 to 07 January. No returning regions expected.
The solar wind speed is expected to become mildly elevated 05
January due to coronal hole effects. The CME reported on 02 January,
is expected to arrive late 05 or on 06 January and further disturb
solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11100012
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 3 11200122
Learmonth 3 12110111
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Gingin 2 11110011
Canberra 2 01200012
Hobart 3 11210012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01100001
Casey 13 33531112
Mawson 4 21211201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 11 Quiet to Active
06 Jan 16 Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated minor
storm period.
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 4 January and
is current for 5-6 Jan. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 04 January. Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on 05 January due to weak coronal hole effects. The arrival of
a CME either late on 05 or 06 January is likely to produce active
conditions. There is the chance of an isolated minor storm period
on 06 January. Conditions should settle on 07 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 05 January. Degraded propagation conditions possible on 06
January, recovering later on 07 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 04 January. Strong sporadic E was observed
mostly at mid-latitude locations. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values, 05 January.
Possible depressions on 06 and 07 January. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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