[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 28 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 February, with one
C-class flare and multiple B-class flares. The C-class flare
from active region AR 2804 peaked at 27/1800 UT and does not
appear to have triggered a CME. There are two other numbered
regions on the visible solar disk: AR2803 and AR2805. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next two UT days, 28 February to
1 March, with a chance of more C-class flares and isolated chance
of a M-class flare due to the flaring potential of AR2804. AR2804
is expected to rotate to the far-side of the sun on UT day 1
March. The CME observed on UT day 26 February associated with
the B9.5 flare is not expected to impact the earth. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs in the available coronagraph imagery during
the last 24 hours. On 27 February, the solar wind speed continued
a gradual declining trend, changing from 450 km/s to 380 km/s;
the total IMF (Bt) and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
ranges were 1-4 nT and +2/-2 nT, respectively. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at its background level today, 28
February. On 1 March, another increase in the solar wind speed
is expected in response to a Southern Polar coronal hole with
extension in the low latitude regions reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12112201
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 3 02102201
Townsville 4 12112201
Learmonth 5 13112201
Alice Springs 3 02102201
Gingin 3 12101201
Canberra 2 12101100
Hobart 3 13111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 03111100
Casey 8 24312201
Mawson 11 24211224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3312 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 7 Quiet
01 Mar 18 Active
02 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 27 February, mostly quiet conditions were
observed in the Australian region. Quiet to unsettled levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet today, UT day 28 February. On
1 March geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels
with possible minor storm periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 28 February. Mildly degraded conditions are possible
on 1 and 2 March due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 27 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 28 February to 1 March. Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible on 2 March, post onset of the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity on 1 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 81200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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