[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 27 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 February. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk: AR2803,
AR2804, and AR2805. The region AR2805 has produced a B9.5 flare
peaking at 26/0725 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three UT days, 27 February to 1 March.
A CME associated with the above-mentioned flare was observed
in LASCO and STEREO imagery. Preliminary modelling results show
that a glancing blow may occur on 2 March (low confidence). There
were no other Earth-directed CMEs in the available coronagraph
imagery. On 26 February, the solar wind speed was gradually decreasing
from 430 km/s to 400 km/s up to ~1100 UT; the total IMF (Bt)
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranges were 3-5
nT and +3/-3 nT, respectively. Then the solar wind speed increased
abruptly to 450-460 km/s; Bt and Bz reached 6 nT and -6 nT, respectively.
Probably, this disturbance happened due to a westward CME observed
on 22 Feb/2300 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated on 27 February. On 1 March another increase in the solar
wind speed is expected due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 21122332
Cocos Island 7 21122331
Darwin 7 11122331
Townsville 9 21122342
Learmonth 10 21123342
Alice Springs 6 10122331
Gingin 7 21022332
Canberra 6 11022232
Hobart 6 11122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 21143221
Casey 13 34332232
Mawson 29 54333246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 5423 1323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 7 Quiet
01 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 26 February, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 27 February and
mostly quiet on 28 February. On 1 March geomagnetic activity
is expected to reach active levels with possible minor storm
periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 27 February to 1 March. Mildly degraded conditions
are possible on 1 March due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 26 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 27 February to 1 March. Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible on 1 March due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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