[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 5 10:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 February. Solar
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days,
05-07 February. The CME from 03 February was further analysed
and determined not to have an earth directed component. Weak
CME activity observed in SOHO LASCO imagery after 03/2212UT,
unlikely to be geoeffective, however analysis will continue.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
images. On 04 February, the solar wind speed decreased from 550
km/s to 440 km/s. This is in response to the waning effect of
a coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 4-8 nT and
the Bz range was +4/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
return to nominal levels on 05 February. Another coronal hole
that will move into geoeffective position on about late 06 February,
elevating the solar wind speed again.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Cocos Island 2 21211000
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 5 22222102
Gingin 7 32223101
Canberra 5 22222012
Hobart 8 23323102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 22324001
Casey 21 45523123
Mawson 17 45322114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2321 1252
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 18 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 04 February due to a waning coronal
hole effects. Quiet to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
quiet on 05 February. Conditions are expected to become mildly
disturbed from late on 06 February due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days 5-7 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were moderately depressed
to near predicted monthly values during UT day 04 February. Sporadic
E was observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values with some minor
to moderate depressions for the next 2 UT days, 05-06 February.
Further MUF depressions may be observed on 07 February in response
to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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