[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 21 issued 2335 UT on 03 Feb 2021

Thu Feb 4 10:35:19 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 February. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days, 
04-06 February. A CME was observed in STEREO A images at around 
1109 UT that needs further analysis. No other Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available satellite images. The solar wind 
speed remained enhanced, between 483 km/s to 610 km/s due to 
a coronal hole. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-8 nT. Elevated solar wind parameters 
are expected to decrease on UT days 04-05 February, gradually 
returning to nominal levels due to waning coronal hole effects. 
However there is another coronal hole that will move into geoeffective 
position on about late 06 February, elevating the solar wind 
speed again.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22221332
      Cocos Island         6   21211231
      Darwin               8   21221332
      Townsville           8   22221332
      Learmonth           11   32221342
      Alice Springs        8   22221332
      Gingin              10   32221333
      Canberra             8   22220332
      Hobart               8   22220332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     7   22210332
      Casey               31   45643343
      Mawson              25   34432462

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3333420     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb     8    Quiet
05 Feb     5    Quiet
06 Feb    15    Quiet to active.

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 03 February due to 
coronal hole wind stream. Quiet to storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on 04 February then quiet on 05 February. 
However another coronal hole will become geoeffective on about 
06 February causing quiet to active conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with some minor depressions for the next 3 UT days, 04 to 06 
February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb     8    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb     8    Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 03 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of 
minor to moderate MUF depressions. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values with some minor depressions for the 
next 3 UT days, 04-06 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   238000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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