[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 21 issued 2335 UT on 01 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 2 10:35:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 February. Solar
activity is expected to be very low over the next three UT days,
02-04 February. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 01 February.
The solar wind speed was at nominal levels between 315 km/s and
364 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-9 nT. A coronal hole wind stream
is expected to elevate solar wind parameters on 02-03 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11001221
Cocos Island 2 11100211
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 4 11102221
Learmonth 4 21002221
Alice Springs 2 11001111
Gingin 3 10001222
Canberra 3 02001221
Hobart 3 12001211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11001210
Casey 11 34322222
Mawson 11 43102323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 20 Unsettled to active with a chance of isolated
minor storm conditions
03 Feb 12 Quiet to active
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and
is current for 1-2 Feb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 01 February. Quiet to active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be quiet to active on 02-03 February
with possible minor storm periods on 02 February due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 01 February, HF propagation conditions were
normal. Degradations in conditions are expected on 02-03 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb -20 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
03 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 01 February, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some minor depressions. Sporadic E was observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values becoming moderately depressed
on 02 February. Mild depressions likely on 03 February in response
to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 14000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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