[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 1 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 January. The
Sun is spotless. Solar activity is expected to be very low over
the next three UT days, 01-03 February. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed on 31 January. The solar wind speed was at nominal
levels between 300 km/s and 335 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-2
nT. A coronal hole wind stream is expected to elevate solar wind
parameters on 01 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 10100002
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 1 10100001
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33321001
Mawson 4 22000103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of isolated minor
storm periods
02 Feb 13 Quiet to Active
03 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 29 January and
is current for 1-2 Feb. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 31 January. Quiet to unsettled
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be quiet to active on 01-02 February
with possible minor storm periods on 01 February due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 31 January, HF propagation conditions were
normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 01 February
with degradations in conditions on 02-03 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 31 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some minor depressions. Sporadic E was observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values on 01 February with possible
depressions later in the period. Minor to moderate depressions
likely on 02-03 February in response to expected geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 21000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list