[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 25 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 26 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for UT day 25 December with several
C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered regions on
the visible solar disk; four of which are significant and active,
namely 2907, 2916, 2017 and 2018. Regions 2016 and 2018 have
developed in area and magnetic complexity and produced several
C-class flares while regions 2907 (on the west limb) and 2917
showed some decay. All other regions remained relatively stable
and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be low over the next
3 UT days, 26-28 December, with a chance of isolated M-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.
On UT day 25 December, the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced between 420-480 Km/s. The peak of the total IMF (Bt)
was 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near background to slightly
enhanced levels today, 26 December. From late on 27 December,
a northern polar positive polarity coronal hole is expected to
disturb the solar wind parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11223111
Cocos Island 3 11212110
Darwin 5 11223111
Townsville 6 22223111
Learmonth 5 11223111
Alice Springs 5 11223110
Gingin 6 11223121
Canberra 6 11323111
Hobart 6 11323110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 11233210
Casey 16 44423232
Mawson 19 23333453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 7 Mostly quiet
27 Dec 15 Quiet to active
28 Dec 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: On UT day 25 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
periods on 26 December. Quiet to active conditions are expected
from late 27 December due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 26-28
December with possible shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 25 December
were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced. Sporadic
E was observed at some stations. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced with possible daylight
fadeouts on UT days 26-28 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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