[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 24 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 25 10:31:15 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for UT day 24 December with several
C-class flares from regions 2907, 2908 and 2917. There are currently
11 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Region 2907 remains
the most complex on the visible disk (Eki/beta-gamma), currently
approaching the west limb. Region 29017 showed some growth and
produced a C7.4 flare at 24/0342UT,the largest flare of the period,
while region 2908 showed decay and produced several C-class flares.
All other regions remained relatively stable and quiet. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next 3 UT days, 25-27
December, with a chance of isolated M-class flares. A CME was
observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO imagery around 24/1212UT most
likely associated with a double peaked C5 flare from region 2908
staring at 24/0959 UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.
On UT day 24 December, the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced but declining in trend, currently around 420 Km/s. The
peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
declining over the the next two UT days, 25-26 December with
possible minor enhancements due a glancing blow from the 21 December
CME. A northern polar positive polarity coronal hole is expected
to increase the solar wind speed from late 27 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11120122
Cocos Island 2 11110111
Darwin 4 11111122
Townsville 5 21120132
Learmonth 5 21121212
Alice Springs 3 12020112
Gingin 4 11120212
Canberra 4 11120122
Hobart 4 11220122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11220022
Casey 18 44532222
Mawson 17 33332235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 24 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to minor storm conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
on UT days 25-26 December. The 21 December CME could deliver
a glancing blow on 25 December, causing isolated active conditions.
Quiet to active conditions may be observed from late 27 December
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 25-27
December with possible shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 55 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 22
December and is current for 23-25 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 24 December were 15-30% above predicted monthly
values. Sporadic E was observed at some stations. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to enhanced with possible
daylight fadeouts on UT days 25-27 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 416000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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