[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 13 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 14 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: On UT day 13 December, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the southeast quadrant
of the visible solar disc; AR2905 (S12E31), AR2906 (S30E39) and
AR2907 (S21E56). These regions currently appear minor and have
not yet produced any significant flare activity. Solar activity
is expected to be very low on UT days 14-16 December, with a
chance of isolated C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 13 December,
the solar wind speed was near nominal levels and ranged from
299 to 336 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +7/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly near its nominal levels for the next three UT days
(13-15 December), with mild enhancements possible due to patchy
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12221012
Cocos Island 3 12120011
Darwin 4 12220012
Townsville 6 12231022
Learmonth 6 22231012
Alice Springs 4 12220012
Gingin 5 12231011
Canberra 4 12221012
Hobart 6 23221012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 12321000
Casey 13 35331012
Mawson 12 35331001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 13 Unsettled
16 Dec 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 13 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian regions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for 14 December,
unsettled conditions with an outside chance for active periods
are possible on 15 and 16 December due to a coronal hole wind
steam.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions are expected during
14-16 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 12 December
and is current for 13-15 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 13 December were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with occasional mild depressions at some locations in the region.
Strong sporadic E observed at Hobart. Near predicted monthly
values to mild depressions are expected on 14-16 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list