[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 21 issued 2331 UT on 27 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 28 09:31:46 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 August. There are
currently four numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2859,
AR 2860, AR2861, and AR2862. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate on UT days 28-30 August because there is a chance
for an M-class flare due to the flaring potential of AR2860.
The two previously reported CMEs observed on 26 August are expected
to reach the Earth late on 28 August or early on 29 August. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
data. Initially on UT day 27 August, the solar wind speed was
near its background levels. At 27/0025 UT a shock-like feature
was observed and the solar wind speed increased up to 420 km/s
and then varied in the range 390-420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
increased from 3 nT to 16 nT. The IMF north-south component (Bz)
was negative since 27/1220 UT, varying in the range -8/-15 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to stay at slightly to moderately
enhanced levels during UT day 28 August due to coronal hole and
CME effects. Further increase in the solar wind speed is expected
at the end of UT day 28 August or early on 29 August due to expected
arrival of the two 26 August CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 21244332
Cocos Island 10 22233232
Darwin 11 31234222
Townsville 14 31244332
Learmonth 15 32244332
Alice Springs 13 21244331
Gingin 16 21243443
Canberra 14 21253332
Hobart 16 21254332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 43 20275653
Casey 13 33343222
Mawson 51 43344676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2213 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 17 Unsettled to Active
29 Aug 27 Active to Minor Storm
30 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to active in
the Australian region and at quiet to storm levels in the Antarctic
region on UT day 27 August. In the SWS magnetometer data for
27 August, a weak (9 nT) impulse was observed at 0117 UT and
a weak (10 nT) impulse was observed at 1234 UT. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to active on UT
day 28 August, with a possibility of an isolated minor storm
period at the end of the day if the two 26 August CMEs will arrive
at Earth by that time. Because of these CMEs, geomagnetic activity
is expected to reach minor storm levels on 29 August with a chance
of isolated major storm periods. On 30 August, geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to unsettled to active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected at the
end of 28 August and on 29-30 August due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. MUFs on UT days 28-29 August are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild to moderate
MUF depressions are possible on 30 August .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 22 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild MUF depressions
in the Southern Australian region during local dawn. MUFs in
the Australian region on UT days 28-30 August are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values with the possibility
of mild to moderate MUF depressions on 30 August due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 95000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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