[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 11 09:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 August. The 
Solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low on 11-13 August. A narrow CME observed in LASCO 
imagery around 09/19UT. This CME appears to be from the far side 
of the Sun and is unlikely to be geoeffective. No other Earth 
directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images. On 10 August. The solar wind parameters remained slightly 
enhanced under the influence of HSS associated with a small coronal 
hole. The solar wind speed showed a slow increasing trend from 
from 350 Km/s to 460 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT 
and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +7/- 6nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background to 
slightly enhanced levels on UT days 11-13 August due to weak 
coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Cocos Island         3   12112011
      Darwin               6   23212111
      Townsville           6   23222111
      Learmonth            7   23213111
      Alice Springs        4   12112111
      Gingin               4   12103111
      Canberra             4   22112101
      Hobart               4   12113101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     3   11003100
      Casey                7   23322111
      Mawson              12   43222204

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1121 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug     5    Quiet
13 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 10 August. Isolated active periods 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on 11-13 August. There is a chance 
of isolated unsettled periods on 11 August due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 11-13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 August were 
near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed. MUFs in 
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 11-13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:   13.6 p/cc  Temp:    36600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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