[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 21 issued 2334 UT on 09 Aug 2021

Tue Aug 10 09:34:22 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 09 August, with a single 
C1 flare from region 2853(N25E58) at 09/0004UT. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low with a slight chance of a C class 
flare on 10-12 August. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed 
in the available coronagraph images. On 09 August, the solar 
wind speed was slightly enhanced,under 380 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range 
was +/- 5nT. These weak enhancements in the solar wind parameters 
are due to anticipated minor coronal hole effects. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be near background to slightly enhanced 
levels on UT days 10-12 August due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01210000
      Cocos Island         1   00210000
      Darwin               3   12211001
      Townsville           3   11211011
      Learmonth            1   00210010
      Alice Springs        1   00210000
      Gingin               0   00200000
      Canberra             1   01210000
      Hobart               1   00211000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00211000
      Casey                4   12320001
      Mawson               6   32221012

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2100 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug     5    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug     5    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet and at quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic region 
on UT day 09 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on 10-12 August. There is a chance of isolated 
unsettled to active periods on 10 August due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 10-12 August. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs are likely.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
11 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
12 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 9 August were 
near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed. Mild to 
moderate depressions were observed near Cocos Island region. 
Similar conditions are expected over the next three UT days, 
10-12 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    80300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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