[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 2 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 August. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR22847
and 2849, they are spotless. Solar activity is expected too be
very low for 02-04 August. The CME observed on 31 August is unlikely
to hit the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the coronagraph images during the last 24 hours. On UT day
01 August, the solar wind speed slowly declined form 420-380km/sec
with the IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-2 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near mildly elevated levels today
01 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 10000110
Cocos Island 1 10100100
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 1 11000111
Learmonth 1 10000110
Alice Springs 1 00000111
Gingin 2 10000220
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22101110
Mawson 3 21001122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 7 Quiet
03 Aug 7 Quiet
04 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 01 August. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 02-04 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 02-04 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 26
Sep 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 1 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values; mild depressions were observed
in the Northern Australian region during local day. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 02 to 04 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 57400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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