[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 1 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 July. The visible
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low for the next three UT days, 01-03 August. A CME
first observed in LASCO C2 images starting at 30/0600 UT seems
to be from the southeast limb. Based on the location of the source,
this CME is unlikely to impact earth. An update on this event
will be provided after the completion of model runs. No other
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images
during the last 24 hours. On UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed
was mildly elevated and decreased gradually from 470 km/s to
420 km/s. The IMF (Bt) range was 2-5 nT and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) range was +3/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near mildly elevated levels today 01 August. The effect
of another coronal hole and a less likely but possible effect
of the CME observed on 28 July, may strengthen the solar wind
stream today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12222211
Cocos Island 3 12121110
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 6 22222220
Alice Springs 4 12122111
Gingin 5 12122220
Canberra 4 12212111
Hobart 5 12222210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01022100
Casey 8 33212221
Mawson 17 32423253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1122 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug 7 Quiet
03 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet on UT day 31 July; the Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet to active conditions on this day. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 01-03 August. Due
to the effect of another coronal hole and unlikely but possible
weak effect from the glancing blow of the CME observed on 28
July, global geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels
on today, 01 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 01-03 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values; mild depressions were observed
in the low latitude regions. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days
01 to 03 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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