[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 21 issued 2338 UT on 13 Apr 2021

Wed Apr 14 09:38:59 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 April. There 
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2814(S24W06). 
This region produced only B class flares in the last 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three 
days, 14-16 April with a chance of a C-class flare. Two solar 
prominences were observed in SDO 304 images on the eastern and 
western solar limbs, the eastern solar limb prominence activity 
may have been associated with a minor narrow eastward directed 
coronal mass ejection around 11 UT on 13 April, but is not considered 
to be geoeffective. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available images. On 13 April, the solar wind speed peaked 
at 380 km/s, with a peak total IMF (Bt) of 7 nT and a north-south 
IMF (Bz) range of +/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be at its background levels over the next two UT days, 14-15 
April. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels 
initially on UT day 16 April. However a negative polarity coronal 
hole will become geoeffective with CIR arriving from late on 
UT day 16 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121111
      Cocos Island         2   11011111
      Darwin               4   11121112
      Townsville           4   11121112
      Learmonth            3   11211111
      Alice Springs        3   00121112
      Gingin               2   101111--
      Canberra             2   00022111
      Hobart               3   01122111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032001
      Casey                6   23211112
      Mawson               7   12213123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1012 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr     7    Quiet
15 Apr     5    Quiet
16 Apr    20    Quiet to active with the chance of an isolated 
                minor storm period.

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 13 April. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in 
the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are predicted for 
14-15 April. Quiet to active conditions on 16 April with a chance 
of an isolated minor storm period due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 14-15 April. Mildly degraded conditions may be observed on 
16 April.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Apr    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions were mostly near predicted 
monthly levels on UT day 13 April. Mostly near predicted monthly 
values are expected on 14-15 April. Mildly degraded conditions 
may be observed on 16 April.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    89100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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