[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 10 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 April. The
visible disc is spotless. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days, 10-12 April. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed. On 09 April, the solar wind speed range was 364-431
km/s, with a peak total IMF (Bt) of 5 nT and a north-south IMF
(Bz) range of +3/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to
be mildly elevated on 10 and 11 April due to a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11010200
Cocos Island 3 32000100
Darwin 2 11110201
Townsville 2 11011200
Learmonth 2 12011200
Alice Springs 1 01000200
Gingin 0 01000---
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 2 11011200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 01010100
Casey 7 33221201
Mawson 6 14101103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of an isolated Active
period.
11 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 09 April. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for the next two days, 10-11 April due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream. There is a chance of an isolated active
period on 10 April. Quiet conditions predicted for 12 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions are expected on 10-11 April.
Normal conditions likely on 12 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day and
after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some depressions to around 25% in MUFs over the northern
Australian region, recovering between about 1300-2100 UT. Sporadic
E observed at Darwin 05-08, 12-13 UT. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values for the next three days, 10-12
April, with some mild to moderate depressions, mostly in the
first half of the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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