[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 9 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 April. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days,
09-11 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 08 April,
the solar wind speed range was 400-500 km/s and showed a gradual
declining trend. This was in response to the waning effect of
a small coronal hole. The peak total IMF (Bt) of 6 nT, and a
north-south IMF (Bz) range of +5/-2 nT was observed during the
last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 9 April) is for
the solar wind speed to continue a gradual decline towards its
background level. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
near its background levels from late UT day 9 April, with mild
enhancements possible due to small patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11011000
Cocos Island 1 11000---
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 2 12011011
Learmonth 1 21000010
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 1 11001010
Canberra 1 10011000
Hobart 2 11022000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 6 23122111
Mawson 13 23210154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19 1224 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 5 Quiet
11 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 08 April, with quiet to unsettled levels observed at
southern high latitudes. The observed mild disturbed periods
were due to moderately elevated solar wind speed associated with
the coronal hole. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 UT days (09-11 April), with an isolated chance of unsettled
conditions due to small patchy coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 09-11 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data
Niue Island Region:
No data
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian regions varied mostly between
near predicted monthly levels and mildly depressed levels on
UT day 08 April. Similar MUF conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 09-11 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 133000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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