[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 31 10:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778(S18W67)
and AR2779(S15W58). No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three
UT days, 31 October to 02 November with a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare. On UT day 30 October, the solar wind
was slightly enhanced, between 400-450Km/s due to the influence
of a north polar coronal hole extension. The total IMF (Bt) was
weak, under 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to be near
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 31 October to
02 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 0 00000001
Darwin 1 11000011
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 2 10010112
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 0 00000011
Canberra 1 01010011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 01120010
Casey 8 23321113
Mawson 18 42221155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1234 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 8 Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled
periods.
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region. Quiet to minor storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet during for the next three UT
days, 31 October to 02 November with possible isolated unsettled
periods today, 31 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
01 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly to mildly depressed levels during UT days 31 October
to 02 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 235000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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