[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 31 10:31:35 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 October. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778(S18W67) 
and AR2779(S15W58). No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three 
UT days, 31 October to 02 November with a slight chance for an 
isolated M-class flare. On UT day 30 October, the solar wind 
was slightly enhanced, between 400-450Km/s due to the influence 
of a north polar coronal hole extension. The total IMF (Bt) was 
weak, under 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected to be near 
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 31 October to 
02 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000011
      Cocos Island         0   00000001
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           2   11100112
      Learmonth            2   10010112
      Alice Springs        1   11000001
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Canberra             1   01010011
      Hobart               2   11110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   01120010
      Casey                8   23321113
      Mawson              18   42221155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1234 2422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct     8    Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled 
                periods.
01 Nov     5    Quiet
02 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region. Quiet to minor storm levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet during for the next three UT 
days, 31 October to 02 November with possible isolated unsettled 
periods today, 31 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 31 October to 02 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Oct   -38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
01 Nov   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 30 October, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted 
monthly to mildly depressed levels during UT days 31 October 
to 02 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   235000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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