[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 30 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 October. There are
currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778 and
AR2779. No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
Solar activity is expected to stay low for the next three UT
days, 30 October to 01 November. However, there is a chance for
an M-class flare. On UT day 29 October, the solar wind continued
to be enhanced due to the influence of a north polar coronal
hole extension. The solar wind speed range was mostly 430-510
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-6 nT, and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between -5/+4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to decrease to its nominal levels
by the end of UT day 30 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 12232311
Cocos Island 6 11132310
Darwin 7 12232311
Townsville 8 22232312
Learmonth 8 22232312
Alice Springs 7 12232311
Gingin 8 21232322
Canberra 9 12242311
Hobart 10 12243311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 16 01353510
Casey 16 35332322
Mawson 38 33333736
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2313 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 7 Quiet
01 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 29 October, mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Mostly quiet
to minor storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
during the next UT day, 30 October; then mostly quiet conditions
with possible unsettled periods are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 30 October to 01 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
31 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
01 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 29 October, MUFs in the Northern Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during local
night and mildly depressed during local day. Mildly depressed
MUFs were observed in Southern Australian region during local
day and night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly to mildly depressed levels during UT
days 30 October to 01 November; the mild depressions are expected
due to recent geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 362000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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