[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 20 issued 2335 UT on 01 Oct 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 2 09:35:12 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 September. 
AR2773 at N30W42 is spotless. No Earthbound CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph data. The solar wind speed varied 
between 492-562 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 4 nT and the 
IMF north-south component (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. Very low 
solar activity is expected 02 to 04 October. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to continue to settle as the influence of the coronal 
hole wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21133222
      Cocos Island         7   11123321
      Darwin               7   12133212
      Townsville           9   22233222
      Learmonth            9   22223322
      Alice Springs        7   21133211
      Gingin               8   21123322
      Canberra             6   11133211
      Hobart               7   11233211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    13   11154320
      Casey               18   34523323
      Mawson              42   43534665

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4432 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01 October. Quiet to major storm levels occurred 
in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected to be 
at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance of an isolated 
active period on 02 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are 
expected 03 to 04 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for UT day 02 October. Mostly normal conditions expected on 03 
to 04 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values with occasional 
                mild depressions.
03 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted 
monthly values to about 20% depressed on UT day 01 October. Some 
spread F observed during night hours at Perth and Hobart. Strong 
sporadic E observed at Hobart 18-19 UT. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 02 October, with some periods of mild MUF degradations. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to slightly 
enhanced at times on 03 to 04 October

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 584 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:   688000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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