[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 20 issued 2335 UT on 01 Oct 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 2 09:35:12 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 September.
AR2773 at N30W42 is spotless. No Earthbound CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph data. The solar wind speed varied
between 492-562 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) reached 4 nT and the
IMF north-south component (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. Very low
solar activity is expected 02 to 04 October. Solar wind parameters
are expected to continue to settle as the influence of the coronal
hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 21133222
Cocos Island 7 11123321
Darwin 7 12133212
Townsville 9 22233222
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 7 21133211
Gingin 8 21123322
Canberra 6 11133211
Hobart 7 11233211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 11154320
Casey 18 34523323
Mawson 42 43534665
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4432 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01 October. Quiet to major storm levels occurred
in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are expected to be
at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance of an isolated
active period on 02 October. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected 03 to 04 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT day 02 October. Mostly normal conditions expected on 03
to 04 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values with occasional
mild depressions.
03 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly values to about 20% depressed on UT day 01 October. Some
spread F observed during night hours at Perth and Hobart. Strong
sporadic E observed at Hobart 18-19 UT. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 02 October, with some periods of mild MUF degradations. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to slightly
enhanced at times on 03 to 04 October
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 688000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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