[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 1 09:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 September.
There is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR2773, currently
at N30W29. No Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph data for the last 24 hours. On UT day 30 September,
the solar wind speed varied between 550-640 km/s for most of
the day, then later in the UT day it became more steady and began
to gradually decline, currently around 560 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) reached a maximum of 5.1 nT at 30/0242 UT but has gradually
declined, currently varying between 3-4 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to continue to decrease on UT days 1-3 October as
the influence of the northern polar coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Cocos Island 10 21243222
Darwin 11 23333222
Townsville 11 23333222
Learmonth 12 32333223
Alice Springs 10 22333222
Gingin 11 32233232
Canberra 10 23332222
Hobart 12 23343222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 27 24564322
Casey 21 44443333
Mawson 39 55442456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4332 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in
the Australian region and Unsettled to Major storm levels occurred
in the Antarctic region on UT day 30 September. These disturbed
conditions were in response to the high solar wind speed emanating
from a Northern Polar coronal hole. Global conditions are expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated
Active periods, on UT day 01 October as coronal hole conditions
decline, decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 02 October
and Quiet conditions on 03 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 01-02 October, returning to Normal conditions by
03 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct -13 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were generally near predicted
monthly values on UT day 30 September. Darwin and the Cocos Island
region experienced minor depressions during the local day. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next UT day, 01 October, with a chance
of some periods of minor MUF degradations due to the recent disturbed
geomagnetic conditions, returning to mostly near predicted monthly
values by 02-03 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 598 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 827000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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