[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 25 10:31:33 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 November with a 
long duration C1 flare starting at 24/0410 UT from region 2785 
(S22E47). A large region 2786 (S16E61)(Cko/beta group) has rotated 
onto the visible disk over the period. A CME first observed in 
LASCO C2 imagery at 24/0500 UT, most likely associated with the 
C1 flare, directed to the SE not expected to be geoeffective. 
No other Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraphic 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three 
UT days, 25-27 November with a chance of an M-class flare potentially 
from region 2786. The solar wind speed continued decreasing, 
currently around 380 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was weak and the 
north-south IMF (Bz) was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be mildly enhanced over the next three days, 25-27 
November due to weak coronal effects and possibly a weak CME 
later on 25 November to 26 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10001102
      Cocos Island         0   00000100
      Darwin               2   11001002
      Townsville           2   10101112
      Learmonth            2   10011112
      Alice Springs        1   10001002
      Gingin               1   10000101
      Canberra             1   11000002
      Hobart               1   01001101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000001
      Casey                8   33221212
      Mawson               9   33122213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2222 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Nov    15    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of active periods.
27 Nov    15    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of active periods.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the 
Antarctic region on 24 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next three days, 25-27 November with a chance 
of active periods due to coronal hole and CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 25-27 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 23 November 
and is current for 23-25 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region were 
mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values during UT day 
24 November. Sporadic E was observed through the period at Hobart, 
Canberra and Sydney, obscuring the F region at Canberra 24/17-18 
UT and Sydney 24/ 00-01UT, 24/ 06-08 UT. MUFs in the Australian 
regions are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days,25-27 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   387000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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