[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 20 issued 2333 UT on 23 Nov 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 24 10:33:42 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 23 November with a
flare in progress (current max C3.7) from newly assigned AR 2786
(S16E75) Hkx/alpha group. This region also produced a C1.2 flare
at 22/2356 UT. AR 2783 (S22W10) developed further spots and is
now a Cao/beta group. AR 2785 (S22E61) is an Hsx/alpha group.
Solar activity is expected to be low. No Earth directed CMEs
observed. The solar wind speed range was 476-619 km/s, trending
down. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) range +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly
enhanced on 24 Nov as coronal hole effects wane. Mild effects
from another coronal hole and possibly a weak CME are expected
later on 25 Nov to 26 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 3 11111211
Darwin 4 11221111
Townsville 4 12221111
Learmonth 5 21221211
Alice Springs 3 11221101
Gingin 5 21222211
Canberra 4 12221111
Hobart 4 12221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 22331010
Casey 16 35422322
Mawson 19 24322354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 2444 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov 11 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible isolated Active
period.
26 Nov 11 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible isolated Active
period
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and quiet to minor storm conditions were observed in the
southern high latitude region on UT day 23 November. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on 24 Nov. Activity may mildly increase
later on 25 or 26 Nov due to coronal hole/CME effects with a
chance of an isolated active period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Depressed ionosphere resulted in normal to poor conditions.
Minor depressions possible on 24 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 23 November
and is current for 23-25 Nov. Depressions to 30% were observed
at most stations in the Australian region in the first half of
23 Nov, then improving. Sporadic E was observed at times at most
stations and obscured the F region at Darwin and Townsville 00
UT, Learmonth 00, 03 UT, Brisbane 01-03, 11-12 UT, Cocos and
Norfolk Is. 22-23 UT, Perth 01 UT and Canberra/Sydney 02-05 UT.
Minor depressions possible at times 24 Nov. Sporadic E can be
expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 405000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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