[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 24 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 May. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected 24 to 26 May. The visible
disc is spotless although there was one transient spot observed
in GONG white light. No returning regions expected. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed has been at background levels, 329 to 376
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and north-south IMF component (Bz) ranged
between 1 to 5 nT and -4 to 2 nT, respectively. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be at nominal levels 24 to 26 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 2 02200010
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 2 11100120
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22211220
Mawson 15 53212143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2110 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 7 Quiet
25 May 7 Quiet
26 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were mostly quiet. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 24 to 26 May with active periods
possible at high latitudes on 24 May. Unsettled periods possible
on 26 May due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 24 to 26 May. Sporadic E and spread F
may degrade conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted to enhanced in the Australian
region on UT day 23 May. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 10-12
and 18-23 UT. Night spread F present at all stations except Cocos
Is. Sporadic E and spread F occurrences expected to continue
with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values, 24 to 26 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 34100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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